Into the unknown
The outsider with perhaps the best guess of whether PsiQuantum will succeed is the Pentagon. The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency—the Pentagon’s research and development arm—has been running an initiative to determine which of the boastful quantum companies might actually deliver. In the last year and a half, the heads of the program have been sounding more confident. Joe Altepeter, who ran the program until last year and proudly described himself as a “quantum skeptic,” told me in March 2025: “I am more optimistic now than I have been at any point in the past 10 years.” And in a statement earlier this year, his successor, Micah Stoutimore, said “it now seems likely that someone will build a utility-scale quantum computer by 2033,” referring to a machine that generates more value from its calculations than it costs to build and operate.
The program has been scrutinizing PsiQuantum’s systems for over a year and putting them through the third stage of a benchmarking initiative meant to determine whether the technology will actually work. But to the rest of the industry, PsiQuantum is sort of a black box.
COURTESY OF PSIQUANTUM
“It is very hard for an outsider to evaluate,” says Scott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist at the University of Texas at Austin who runs a popular blog that often covers the industry. Other companies, like Google and Quantinuum, have regularly published results over the years demonstrating chips and systems with incremental improvement, publicly laying the engineering groundwork needed to eventually build large machines.
PsiQuantum has instead focused squarely on a commercial goal—a computer with one million qubits, which is the scale that researchers expect to unlock research currently not possible on normal computers. PsiQuantum often differentiates itself with this industrial-scale goal, but IBM, which debuted a development road map in 2020, has been progressively building bigger and bigger systems. It initially targeted 2028 for a large-scale, error-corrected system, a deadline that now appears to have been pushed out to 2030.
Making it useful
On top of actually building the machine, a major focus for PsiQuantum is getting the rest of the world to develop a plan for how to use it. PsiQuantum has announced partnerships with customers including the defense giant Lockheed Martin, which intends to use it for materials design; the automaker Mercedes, which wants it for battery design; and the aerospace manufacturer Airbus.
That these companies don’t have a computer to experiment with is not a problem, according to Ernst at PsiQuantum. “There’s a PlayStation 6 probably coming up from Sony next year or the year after, and people are programming those games right now,” he says. “This is, in principle, very similar.” (It’s a glib analogy but not an entirely empty one; the quantum algorithms for solving a research problem can be cracked even if there is not yet hardware to run them on.)
The idea is that experts in quantum information from both PsiQuantum and its customers will be able to translate design problems—say, the requirements for a battery in a Mercedes electric vehicle—into algorithms the computer could solve. The company offers a software package called Construct, which companies can use to design their own algorithms that might one day run on the computer.
The future of quantum computing hinges on these algorithms. Quantum computers get painted as a speedup for everything, but in reality, they’re suited to a subset of problems, and answering a question with this sort of machine requires the question to be formulated with very specific types of algorithms. People spend entire careers working on such algorithms, even if the computers to run them don’t exist yet. At their core, they use the rules of quantum mechanics to manipulate probabilities in ways that ordinary computers can’t.